So who the f*** said it?

As the Blairites start to take their revenge on Gordon Brown for the week's shenangigans, Guido has asked his legions of readers for their help in identifying the Cabinet minister who told Nick Robinson that Brown "would be a fucking dreadful Prime Minister and I will do all in my power to stop him."

Well, I'm happy to lend a hand as it's a question that's been buzzing round in my mind too.

Going through the Cabinet list one-by-one, the following can be ruled out because they are bascially friends or supporters of Gordon: Prescott, Straw, Beckett, Darling, Hain, Alexander, Browne, Hewitt and Timms.

Meanwhile the following can be ruled out because they are too nice to use words like fuck - at least in public: Kelly, Miliband, Armstrong, Jowell, Amos, Benn and Smith.

Which to my mind leaves five prime suspects in the frame: Reid, Johnson, Falconer, Blears and Hutton.

Taking these in turn, Reid would seem to be the hot favourite, both on account of his well-documented views on Gordon and occasionally belligerent nature. But there's one problem - he was out of the country yesterday, and this exchange with Robinson has the air of something uttered to his face rather than over the phone.

What about Johnson, then? Well, it's the kind of thing he might have said, but he has been playing his cards very close to his chest with regard to the leadership, and I find it unlikely he would have used words to Robinson which would effectively confirm his candidature.

Blears? I'll say this much - she's the only Cabinet woman you can imagine making such a remark, and she's no fan of the Chancellor either. But it still sounds like a blokey comment to me, and Blears, as party chairman, will be aware of the need for her to remain publicly above the fray.

What about Falconer? Now I think we're possibly getting warmer. Some would say he's too urbane to use the f-word, but in my experience posh lawyers are just as foul-mouthed as their more humble counterparts. And with his Cabinet career at an end if Brown takes over, he certainly has the motive.

Finally, Hutton. He's often thought of as Mr Geniality but he sounded pretty tetchy to me on the Today Programme yesterday, especially when asked about whether he endorsed Gordon for leader. Maybe he's picked up some bad habits from his former flatmate Alan Milburn who swears like a trouper. Particularly about Gordon.

So there it is. But there's a serious point here too, in that if this the kind of thing the Blairites are saying about Gordon, then it is clear he is now facing a concerted attempt to block him, with all the consequential risks of a lasting split in the party if that effort succeeds.

You can be sure of one other thing, too. That Gordon's people will also be doing their damnedest to find out who said it.

****

To round off a hectic week's blogging, here's a couple of other things that caught my eye today.

First, Times Political Editor Philip Webster's front page story on the crisis, which contains the intriguing paragraph: "But Mr Brown appeared to be the unassailable favourite to succeed Mr Blair as one minister after another offered support to the Chancellor."

As any fule kno, at least at Westminster, the word "unassailable" has long been a political code-word for someone who is about to be sacked - after Margaret Thatcher used it about her soon-to-be-departing Chancellor Nigel Lawson in 1989.

Was this just Webster's little joke? Or was it possibly something more sinister, a warning to Brown delivered via one of the Blair camp's most trusted scribes that he is riding for an almighty fall?

Finally, the Blair fightback continues with the establishment of a new website, Keeping the Faith, dedicated to defending the PM against the "minority" of MPs who are trying to dethrone him.

Among those who have signed the online petition are Adrian McMenamin, the combative former Labour press officer whose job used to involve infiltrating the opposition parties' conferences and instantly rebutting any attack on New Labour, and Darren Murphy, the former Milburn SPAD who went on to become Mr Blair's political secretary.

But for a brilliant deconstruction of the site and the people behind it, I hereby direct you to this piece on Bloggerheads.

Tim "Manic" Ireland's twisted humour is quite frequently beyond me. But he has played an absolute blinder on this one.

It's not enough

Tony Blair has confirmed what we already knew and said he will stand down within the next year. Gordon Brown has said the timing is his decision and warned there can be no more private agreements or pacts.

But is it enough? Will Tony Blair now get his 10 years after all? And will Gordon Brown really just sit back and wait for him to go, in the certain knowledge that each day that goes by gives his enemies more chance of finding an alternative?

No, I don't think so. The heart of the issue - the political dynamic which is really driving this crisis and which has caused it come to a head now - remains unresolved.

That is quite simply the desire among Labour MPs for a new leader to be in place by the time of the local and devolved elections in May so they can begin the fightback against David Cameron's resurgent Tories.

On my blog earlier, I set out an way in which that could happen, with a new party leader taking over in March, but Blair remaining PM until May - the "Aznar Option" as it has been termed.

This to me is the only way in which both sides can salvage something from this, but there is no indication that it is even on the agenda. Indeed Mr Brown, in his statement, seemed to go out of his way to stress there can be no more deals.

The only Blairite minister who has really been seeking to pour oil on the party's troubled waters has been David Miliband, who I must say has gone hugely up in my estimation today.

In his interview with the New Statesman, he not only ruled himself out of contention for the leadership - a sensible move at his age - but made clear that he wanted a stable transition to Mr Brown - and no-one else.

By contrast, some of the Blairites seem determined to try to goad Mr Brown beyond endurance, with John Hutton the new flavour-of-the-month among the ranks of the "Anyone But Gordon" faction.

One Cabinet ally of Mr Blair is reported to have told the BBC's Nick Robinson tonight: "He would be a fucking dreadful Prime Minister and I will do everything in my power to stop him."

Mike Smithson has a theory that this is what the row has really been about - that Brown has realised Blair intends to make a real contest of it by stringing out his departure and endorsing other candidates' right to put themselves forward.

If that proves to be the case, then this week's shenangigans will prove only to have been the opening skirmishes in a bitter and protracted civil war.

Okay, here's The Deal (III)

Tony Blair is due to set out later today the plans for his departure, but unless he agrees to go before the Scottish and Welsh elections in May, I can't see it resolving the current crisis.

As I wrote yesterday, it is these elections that now lie at the heart of the issue, and the very real fear among MPs that Labour will lose control of the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly unless Blair is gone by then.

Blair and Brown are reported to have had a furious bust-up, with the Chancellor demanding that the PM go before Christmas, and Blair continuing to dig his heels in.

As both the Times and Guardian have argued in their leader columns this morning, some sort of deal is now urgently necessary to stop the Government imploding. Here's what I think such a deal would need to say in order for it to stick.

* Brown publicly disassociates himself from the current attempts to force Blair out of office now and endorses the need for him to be allowed to make a "dignified exit."

* Blair announces that he will leave 10 Downing Street on May 4, 2007, immediately after the local and devolved elections, and three days after the 10th anniversary of his coming to power.

* Labour convenes a special conference in January to trigger an election for a new leader of the party, to be in place by March.

* A two-month dual premiership then ensues, with the new Labour leader heading up the party's campaign for the local and devolved elections while Blair remains a "caretaker" Prime Minister.

* Blair makes clear that he continues to endorse Brown as his successor and disowns the comments by Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers which appear to suggest the need for a different direction.

* Brown continues to make clear that his Government will be New Labour to the core -which to be fair he always has done.

If this scenario appears slightly to favour Brown, it is because it is the Chancellor who is in the stronger political position at the moment.

But there needs to be compromise on both sides now. If there isn't, Blair is going to end up being dragged kicking and screaming from power, and the only winners will be the Tories.

Update: Obviously the essence of my proposed deal is that Blair gives up being party leader in March before he gives up being Prime Minister in May. Guido has a post in which he refers to this solution as "the Aznar," after a similar arrangement in Spain before Jose Maria Aznar stepped down.

So is it a coup?

The public intervention of arch-Brownite former Europe Minister Doug Henderson (pictured) into the Labour leadership wrangle this afternoon will doubtless be construed by the Blairites as evidence that the long-awaited Brownite putsch is under way. Indeed, long-time Blair admirer Martin Kettle has already rushed into print on Comment is Free to denounce the "plot."

I'm not so sure myself. I think what we are now seeing is not so much a conspiracy but the outworkings of the natural laws of political dynamics.

Dougie H is not an objective witness. He hates Blair's guts for having sacked him from the Government in 1999, purely on the grounds of his association with Brown rather than his performance as a minister, and he justifiably expects to return to office, though perhaps not at Cabinet level, in a Gordon adminstration.

But to me his comment about why Blair should go now, and what is to be gained from him hanging around for another year, hits the nail on the head.

Newcastle North MP Mr Henderson said today: "There should be a new leader in place by the end of March in time for the local elections and mid-term polls in Scotland and Wales."

In my previous post I discussed the various ways in which Blair might yet be forced out, most probably by a rebellion in the Cabinet or the PLP. These elections seem to me to be the key to the whole affair.

If Scottish and Welsh MPs decide collectively, as many of them already seem to have done, that Labour faces disaster in next May's devolved elections as long as Blair remains in post, then I think it is going to be incredibly hard for him to resist the pressure to depart soooner.

In other words, he's not going to get his 10 years after all.

Anyway, enough of the serious stuff. Here's a couple of light-hearted takes on the Blair departure story which I really appreciated today.

Tim Dowling in the Guardian imagines a possible Blue Peter interview with Mr Blair as he embarks on his "legacy tour," while Blairwatch suggests some possible tour venues, culminating in a grand finale in the Millenium Dome whilst the Women's Institute sing Jerusalem.

Ten ways in which Blair could go before May 31, 2007

So it is apparently official. Tony Blair's closest allies confirm he will be gone in less than a year. George Pascoe Watson in the Sun goes further and names May 31, 2007 as the actual resignation date, possibly by the clever journalistic device of working eight weeks back from the end of the 2007 Parliamentary session. For Junior Defence Minister and fellow blogger Tom Watson it is not soon enough, and he quits.

Having long taken the view that Blair would try to hang around for his 10th anniversary, I concluded yesterday that it was no longer possible. Here's ten factors and forces which could intervene in his plans, ranging from a change of heart by the man himself to Harold Macmillan's fabled "events, dear boy, events...."

1. Himself. Blair might just decide he's had enough of all this, and announce a surprise departure. For as long as the process remained in Blair's hands, I thought this was quite a likely option, but the announcement of a "timetable" has made it less likely, as it would now look like he was succumbing to pressure. Chances: 2/10.

2. Gordon Brown. The Chancellor might finally cotton-on to the fact that Blair is determined to stitch him up, and launch a pre-emptive strike. It would be an incredible gamble and might bring the curse of the regicide down on his head, but that might be better than hanging around for Reid/Johnson/Miliband to emerge as serious alternatives. Chances: 4/10.

3. John Prescott. The Deputy Leader might once have been a plausible conveyor of the silver bullet, but his credibility is shot. He could however still bring down Blair in another way - by falling on his own sword. Since Blair has already said he is going, there would then be pressure for the leadership and deputy leadership to be resolved at the same time. Chances: 6/10.

4. The Cabinet. Despite the decline of "Cabinet Government," it was the Cabinet that did for Thatcher in the end and I now think this is the likeliest denouement for Blair. They know it will almost certainly put Brown in No 10, and that will mean the end of a good few Cabinet careers. But better that than another year of drift and division. Chances: 7/10.

5. The PLP. Blair's support within the PLP is visibly waning and unless the political situation improves for Labour - hard to see while Blair remains in place - it is entirely plausible that he could fall victim to the kind of internal MPs revolt that did for both Iain Duncan Smith and Charles Kennedy. If so, expect the Scots and the Welsh to be to the fore. Chances: 6/10.

6. The House of Commons. Alternatively, Blair's dwindling support in the PLP may lead to his defeat on a major piece of Government legislation and a vote of no confidence. This would however require David Cameron's acquiescance, and it is in Cameron's interests to keep Blair in power as long as possible. Chances: 3/10.

7. Conference. There is still a theoretical possbility that someone could bring forward a motion to the party conference, or demand the connvening of a special conference, that could in turn trigger a leadership election. It's a remote possibility, but I include it here as it is the only formal procesure that actually exists. Chances 1/10.

8. The public. Elections for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Asesembly and English local authorities take place next May. Blair will be gone soon after that anyway so the results won't have a direct impact on the date. But what about by-elections? There are bound to be some, and they could easily turn into referendums on whether Blair should stay or go. Chances: 5/10.

9. The police. The most intriguing possibility, and the one which could yet bring the Blair years to the most ignominious end imaginable. Inspector John Yates is currently investigating the award of peerages in return for donations to Labour funds or towards setting up City Academies. If Blair has his collar felt, he is toast. Chances: 4/10.

10. "Events." These are by their very nature always beyond a politician's control, but invariably have greater impact when that politician is already weakened. In the early days, Blair's popularity enabled him to brush such setbacks aside. Not now. Some new scandal affecting a Labour minister, or some new catastrophe in Iraq could easily tip him over the edge. Chances: 7/10.

Chances of none of these things happening, and Blair surviving until next summer: 0/10.

The Wages of Spin

Two, or possibly even three letters have been sent to Tony Blair by Labour MPs demanding that he stand down immediately. The leaked memo published in today's Daily Mirror shows why they are right.

When I first saw this, I have to say my first reaction was that it was a spoof. Someone on another blog has likened it to an Armando Iannucci sketch and I think that's about right.

But Kevin Maguire, loyal Brownite though he may be, is not the kind of reporter who gets spoofed. Whether or not Blair himself ever saw the memo, I do believe it is genuine.

What it shows, above all, is that whatever tenuous grip on reality might once have existed within the Blair Bunker has now been completely and irretrievably lost.

The memo states that Mr Blair "needs to go with the crowds wanting more. He should be the star who won't even play that last encore. In moving towards the end he must focus on the future."

It's that phrase "needs to go with the crowds wanting more" that does it for me. Has whoever wrote that picked up a newspaper lately, or read the opinion polls, or spoken to ordinary voters, or Labour Party members for that matter?

If they had, they would know that the country, and the party too, is fed-up to the back teeth of Blair, has been for some time, and just wants him to get on his bike.

The last conceivable date at which Blair could have "gone with the crowds wanting more" would have been immediately after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in the Spring of 2003, before it became clear what an evil morass we had involved ourselves in, or how far the public had been deceived into backing the war in the first place.

This evident loss of touch with reality is all of a one with that strange "Anthony" mug with which Mr Blair appeared at his recent monthly press conference.

"You're a man who's in charge, others follow your lead. Your refined inner voice drives your thoughts and deeds. You possess great depth and have a passionate mind. Others think you're influential, ethical and kind," it read.

A few years back, the Downing Street spokesman Tom Kelly sought to rubbish his namesake Dr David Kelly by describing him as a "Walter Mitty Charachter," ignoring, for instance, the pivotal role which Dr Kelly played in verifying the disarmament process in Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Well, who is Walter Mitty now, Tom?

Of course, Tony Blair has always had a Messiah complex. I don't mean he thinks he is Jesus Christ, but he does think that he is in some way the chosen one, a modern-day Moses perhaps, the only one capable of leading his people from the wilderness to the promised land, perhaps even the only one capable of keeping them there.

What is outlined in the memo is not so much a resignation, as an ascension into heaven, or at least into the bright, sunlit uplands of elder statesmanship.

As Maguire states: "Privately a highly detailed battle plan is in place that aims to catapult Mr Blair out of office and into elder statesmanship with as many bells and whistles as possible. The key aides masterminding the most drawn-out exit in British political history have thought of everything - even a celestial choir, courtesy of Songs of Praise.

"While Mr Blair scolds us for "obsessing" over his exit date, it is clear he is a lot more obsessed."

But to those of us who have spent the better parts of our careers following the fortunes of Tony Blair and New Labour, none of this should come as a great surprise.

Mr Blair was spun into office in the first place, and to be spun out of office courtesy of a carefully co-ordinated series of photo-ops and interviews would doubtless be an appropriate end for the Great Charlatan.

Environment Secretary David Miliband has said today that he reckons it will happen in 12 months time, but whether or not that constitutes confirmation of the wretched "timetable" which Mr Blair was only days ago seeking to deny us, he won't last that long.

All political careers end in failure - but Blair's is now in danger of ending in farce.

Blair-must-go watch update:

Calling for Blair to go now/this year

Chris Bryant, Sion Smon and 15 other Labour MPs
Andrew Smith
Frank Dobson
Michael Meacher
Ashok Kumar
Glenda Jackson
The Guardian
The Daily Telegraph
The Economist
The New Statesman
Tribune
Polly Toynbee
Matthew Parris
Jonathan Freedland
Stephen Pollard
Paul Linford
Bloggerheads
Skipper
BBC Newsnight poll
Times Populus poll

Demanding a timetable for leadership handover

Wayne David, Don Touhig and other Welsh MPs
Neal Lawson/Compass
Nick Raynsford
Martin Salter
Howard Stoate

Footnote: Mike White of the Guardian, who was widely believed to have counselled his newspaper against calling for Blair to go this year, is now calling for "a dignified exit" soon.