The mystery minister

If you go to this thread on Jane Griffiths' blog, you will find some interesting allegations about the identity of the Cabinet minister who offered the late former Newark MP Fiona Jones promotion in return for sex.

Apparently the News of the World have already named him, but you would need to have read two stories written two years apart to make the link. The second story is HERE. Not surprisingly, the original one published in 2005 seems to have disappeared from its website.

No further comment from me required....

Update 1: Alice Miles of the Times has written a brilliant piece on Fiona Jones HERE. "That image of a teenage son heaving a mother in an alcoholic stupor back into bed for her to die, alone, is a dismal reminder that behind the machinery of politics, beyond the criticism and the cynicism we fling, lie real people struggling in a failing system."

Update 2: For some reason, this has been a record-breaking day on this blog, despite the missing hat-tips.

Gordon's Government - II

....Who will be following Blair and Prescott out of the door?




Last week, in the first of my series of posts on the likely make-up of Gordon Brown's Cabinet, I said I believed that up to eight ministers - more than a third of the Cabinet - could be leaving the government as a result of the transition.

The identity of two of them we already know - Tony Blair himself, and his deputy John Prescott who announced last October that he would be following his boss into retirement.

But who will join them? Which veterans of the New Labour years might have to be asked to make way for new blood - and which Blair loyalists might find they have pinned their colours rather too closely to Mr Tony's mast for his successor's liking?

Well, there are two over-60s among the ranks of the Cabinet's Blairite sisterhood who appear vulnerable on both grounds - Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell, and Social Exclusion Minister Hilary Armstrong.

In the days when she was John Smith’s parliamentary private secretary, Ms Armstrong was once close to Mr Brown. But over the years, she has become more and more identified with the Blairite cause, most notably during an undistinguished stint as Chief Whip.

I suspect that she finds the social exclusion role much more to her liking, but at 61, she is surely living on borrowed political time.

As for Ms Jowell, her chances of remaining on board are additionally hampered by having been caught up sleaze accusations as a result of her husband David Mills' involvement with the corrupt Italian media tycoon-cum-politician Silvio Berlusconi.

Her solution to that was to claim she had known nothing of the link and then to lay down her marriage for the sake of her career, but her tenure of the Culture brief has not greatly endeared her to the press or public and her departure would be seen as no great loss.

More controversial would be the axeing of Work and Pensions Secretary John Hutton, who has been seen as a rising star under Blair and who is still talked about in some quarters as a dark horse contender for the leadership.

I don't believe Gordon will go out of his way to victimise those who could have emerged as contenders - John Reid will be kept in a senior role for instance - but I somehow doubt if the quality of mercy will extend to Mr Hutton.

He is widely believed to have been the Cabinet minister responsible for telling the BBC's Nick Robinson last September that Mr Brown “would make a fucking dreadful Prime Minister," and I expect him to pay the political price for this outburst.

Joining him in the exit lobby will, surely, be Charlie Falconer, the "First Flatmate" and Prime Ministerial favourite who has performed much the same role for Blair as Lord Young did for Margaret Thatcher and George Wigg did for Harold Wilson,

There will also be much discussion concerning the fate of two of the Cabinet's other senior women - Margaret Beckett and Patricia Hewitt.

Mrs Beckett is now the only remaining minister who served under Callaghan and as such has an unrivalled claim to the title Great Survivor of modern Labour politics. She is also a very close ally of Mr Brown's.

But her role as Foreign Secretary is keenly coveted by a trio of heavyweights in Jack Straw, Hilary Benn and Peter Hain, and if Gordon can stomach the idea of a Derby South by-election she may well find herself asked to become Leader of the House of Lords.

That would be bad news for Valerie Amos, who has never particularly shone in the role, and also for Lord Kinnock, who some Labour sentimentalists hope might finally get to occupy a Cabinet seat in the evening of his career.

But if Mrs Beckett looks set to survive the post-Blair cull, I am far less sure about Ms Hewitt. A couple of years back, she fancied herself as the first female Chancellor, but her performance as Health Secretary has been lamentable.

Not only has she failed to convince many of her Cabinet colleagues to support the current regionalisation of health services, she has totally failed to explain it to the public either.

Australia's most famous political export is a Brownite of old, and that, together with the fact that Gordy won't want to be seen to be sacking too many women, may yet save her.

That said, it is hard to see her being offered any post that would not now be seen as a demotion, and as such she may herself conclude that her political career has now peaked.

The future of Margaret Beckett is also the main subject of my latest Podcast which is now live. A text version can be found at the Derby Evening Telegraph site.

A sad story

I can't claim to have known Fiona Jones (pictured, left, in happier days) but I was extremely saddened to hear the news of her death last week. Although her death was ostensibly due to alcohol abuse, her problems appear to have stemmed from our hard-drinking Westminster culture coupled with her shocking, but totally predictable, treatment at the hands of the New Labour hierarchy.

Fiona was one of a number of MPs elected in 1997 who hadn't really been expected to win, and who as a result had not been thoroughly Mandelsonised in the way other "Blair Babes" had been. Mandelson actually held a meeting with Labour Press Officers at 6am on the morning of Labour's election victory to discuss what to do about these dangerous loose cannons. In Fiona's case, the answer soon became clear: marginalise them.

She certainly wasn't the only one. Another 1997 intake MP who I won't bother to name also became well-known for enjoying a drop or two and for consorting with journalists, and within a couple of months of the election I was being told by people in the whips' office that she "would probably have to be deselected." Another victim of the briefing culture around this time was Gordon McMaster, who committed suicide in 1997, alleging that two fellow Labour MPs had spread rumours about his sexuality.

Like McMaster, Fiona Jones was not a heavy drinker before entering Parliament, but once subjected to its degenerate boozing culture she allowed a taste for alcohol to get out of control. Having worked in the Commons for nearly a decade I know how easily this can happen, and at one time I had to take steps to make sure it didn't happen to me.

In 1999, Fiona was wrongly convicted of falsifying her election expenses in what, in the light of what we now know about this sleazy New Labour regime, now seems a pretty inconsequential hill of beans. The sum total of the case against her was that she had overspent her allocation by a few quid by neglecting to fill in her expenses form properly.

She was cleared on appeal, but "whiter-than-white" New Labour had now cut her firmly adrift and in 2001 she lost her seat. Perhaps this is one of the reasons they were so keen to see the back of her.

Several other pieces sympathetic to Fiona have appeared on the blogosphere over the weekend, but perhaps the most revealing comment came from an anonymous poster on Paul Walter's blog, Liberal Burblings.

"She was treated like shit by a local and national Labour Party that should have at least the minimal duty of care that we would expect (especially a trade-unionised party) in any other type of work. I was told not to speak to her - "she's bad news." Fiona's story is not the first and will not be the last."

This post was featured on "Best of the Web" on Comment is Free.

In my dreams?

I had a fairly vivid dream last night that Tony Blair would resign today, although I think this stems more from reading too much of Iain Dale's Blog than any genuine prophetic insight on my part.

Nevertheless, today's revelations that he was questioned a second time over the cash-for-honours affair last Friday have surely pushed him even closer to the exit door.

It's not that often I take issue with Guido Fawkes but I was surprised to see him advising punters today to back a July departure, admittedly before news of the second interview broke.

I honestly think the very best he can hope for now is a March announcement on a formal departure just after the local elections in May. That way he still gets to do his 10 years, while at the same time lancing the boil ahead of those elections to limit the damage to Labour.

Of course, Blair himself remains in denial about the degree of damage he is doing by hanging on, but the man who has run Britain like an elected president is about to be reminded that we live in a parliamentary democracy after all.

To put it bluntly, I don't think Labour MPs are going to put up with another five or six months of this. It will be a plain, old-fashioned backbench revolt that gets him in the end.

Gordon's Government

....But who will get his old job?





With Gordon Brown's accession to the Labour leadership now looking all-but-assured, guessing the shape of his first Cabinet has become one of the favourite pasttimes of political bloggers and even some serious journalists. I myself have been challenged a couple of times to name who I think will in be Gordon's line-up.

Well, I'm not only going to take up this challenge, I'm going to do a whole series of posts on it, starting today with a look at who I think will get his current job as Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Before turning to that, however, I thought I would, by way of a general introduction to the series, make some general observations about what factors I think will guide Brown in his choices.

They are: the need to be seen as a new government, the need to unite a divided party, the need to placate potential rivals, the need to ensure competence and continuity, and finally the need to reward those who have stuck by him through thick and thin.

1. A new government. Most observers now agree that the Brown accession will see a big influx of fresh talent from the younger generation, including some MPs elected as recently as 2005. I would expect at least eight members of the present Cabinet - more than a third - to leave the Government.

2. Party unity. There will, I believe, be a return to the Wilsonian style of party management. Jon Cruddas will be offered a senior role whether or not he wins the deputy leadership. Iraq War resigner John Denham will be given a Cabinet job. And some key Blairites will be kept on.

3. Placating rivals. In the same vein, Gordon will be magnanimous to those who could have emerged as potential rivals. John Reid will remain in a senior role. Charles Clarke may be offered a way back into government, though he may decline it. And then there's David Miliband....(see below)

4. Competence and continuity. I believe Gordon wants to run a government that will be noted for its quiet efficiency, with a premium on ministers who get the job done. There will be less of the putting square pegs in round holes (eg Reid to Health) that frequently happened under Blair.

5. Rewarding loyalty. There are some people who were extremely badly treated by Blair on account of their closeness to Gordon - most notably Nick Brown and Yvette Cooper. Gordon will want to repay them for the years the locusts have eaten.

So, turning to the job of Chancellor of the Exchequer, what do I think will Gordon do about his most vital appointment - that of his own successor?

Well, any assessment of this is complicated by the recent discussions about splitting the Treasury into a Ministry for Economic Affairs (also subsuming the DTI) and a Finance Ministry (a bit like the difference between a finance director and a commercial director in most companies.)

Assuming though, for the sake of argument, that the job remains intact, attention has focused primarily on two candidates.

They are Gordon's former economic adviser, now junior Treasury minister Ed Balls, and his long time ally, the Trade and Industry Secretary Alistair Darling.

Taking Balls first, I find Philip Webster convincing on this one, and not just because he goes to watch football with Balls every other Saturday.

I have long taken the view that promotion to the Chancellorship this early on in his career would be too big a leap, and according to the Political Editor of the Times, so does Gordon. Balls seems destined instead for the Chief Secretaryship, with the big promotion coming some time in the next Parliament.

So what about Alistair Darling? Well, I am going to come out against him as well, not because I think Gordon wouldn't want him as Chancellor, but because I don't think he can have him.

At a time when the Tories are seeking to make a general election issue of Brown's Scottishness, he simply cannot afford to have the two most important jobs in British politics occupied by politicians from north of the border - particularly if he also keeps John Reid at the Home Office.

That, to my mind, leaves two English candidates as the front-runners for the Treasury role.

The first of these is David Miliband. He was the only potential leadership rival that Brown ever really feared, and had he been a slightly cannier operator, I think Miliband could have played on that fear and demanded the Exchequer as his price.

But his current role as Environment Secretary has, suddenly, become a very high profile as well as a very important role in terms of helping to shape the politics of the next few years, and he may well elect to stay there.

Miliband also weakened his own negotiating position by making it clear fairly early on that he wouldn't stand for leader. In conclusion I'm not as convinced as I once was that he will end up as Chancellor, although I still think he is a very strong contender.

The other candidate is Jack Straw, the great survivor of the New Labour years. Some tip him for a return to the Foreign Office, but though this could well happen, other strong candidates for the FCO exist, notably Hilary Benn or even Peter Hain.

In contrast, there seems an absense of real heavyweight contenders for the Treasury, and I am now tending towards the view that if Brown decides to keep the department intact, Straw could well be his man, perhaps with the brief of overseeing the eventual transition to two separate departments.

But if Gordon decides to go for the Big Bang, I tip Straw to return to the Foreign Office rather than undertake either of what would both be lesser roles. In those circumstances, I would back Darling to become Economic Affairs Secretary and Miliband to take on the Finance brief.

I suspect the position will become clearer over the coming weeks as we get an idea of just how serious the proposal to split the Treasury really is.

They don't learn, do they?

You would think, wouldn't you, that with all the problems it is encountering as a result of the cash for peerages inquiry, Labour would have the good sense to end all Prime Ministerial patronage over House of Lords appointments and support a fully elected Second Chamber.

But, according to The Guardian's Patrick Wintour, apparently not.